A new lecturer would not have been appointed to a 5* department unless somebody thought they were pretty good. There can be a lot of advantages to being somebody's first PhD student. They will be very interested in what you are doing and will have far more time to dedicate to you and your project.
I would say you had an 80% chance of the supervisor being fine, especially since it is a grade 5 dept, BUT be prepared for the 20%. Personally, I would go for a senior member of staff (but check they're not planning to retire soon!), experience can only help. They're also likely to be more settled (won't disappear mid-PhD).
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