I've been shortlisted for a PhD scholarship (in Physics, if that helps), which is great. However, it specifies that you need to be expecting to get a 1st. What happens if I don't? If they really thought I was the best candidate, but I only got a 2:1, would they overlook it or have to turn me down? Has anyone else been in this situation?

If you tell them you are expecting a first, how are they going to know whether you will actually get a first? Anyone can expect to get something without realistically be going to get it.

Anyway, it's probably because they want someone with at least a very good 2.1. Like you said, if they like you I doubt it will make much difference if you actually get a 1st in the end.

Thanks, Tree, I feel a little reassured!